Prediction, history and probability

In maths, we are taught that the probability is a multiplication of numbers. E.g. the probability of having three consecutive same digit of a cube dice is 1/6*1/6*1/6=1/216. However, if you think of how these consecutive occurrences can be linked together, you might find out that somehow, the probability is passing through time…

Let’s say that there are 6*6*6=216 results of throwing a cube dice three times.

Let’s say you did 216 times and record all of your results, and found out that instead of the perfect results of having each possibility on each occurrence, you got some that were more than once and some were not happened at all.

Later, you did another 216 times. This time, you found out that you results were not perfected again.

However, when you sum up twice of the 216 times, your results somehow got balanced.

This means, somehow, probability is linked through time, isn’t it?

No matter how many times you try, you will get imperfect results most of the time in the beginning, but then you sum up more and more of your results, they will be balanced over time.

If you cut off each of the 216 times, where each of the recorded historical results are separated, the imbalance is obvious once more, as if you can see the imbalance through the past.

From here, you can actually understand that to predict the future, it is to look at the imbalance and seek for the balancing occurrence and follow the balancing occurrence to occur and thus is able to predict it. However, if you look at a longer period of the historical results, they are more balanced and hence harder to predict.

From this point, it can be seen that the nature of occurrence, if is running by probability, a short period occurrence is always imbalance but predictable, while a long period occurrence is balanced and fixated and not predictable any more. Or in other word, prediction of a probabilistic system can only be done in short period, while historical record over a long period of time will balance the probabilistic system.

In metaphysical sense: If without a historical record it will be chaotic, thus shows the importance of a history, because it balance the probability; If without a short term prediction, doing things by luck is chaotic.

Prediction increases in shorter time, thus speeds up the probabilistic system.

Historical record increases the balance over time, thus maintains the probabilistic system.

If the world is running by probabilistic system, time is improved/shortened by prediction and is balanced by historical record.

Do you feel that the world has been speeding and balancing? Who do you think has made this happened?

Anyway, time will never stopped.

~Dark messenger~


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